2009年2月9日A股板块分析

Date:2009年2月9日

今天大盘继续保持上涨,收盘时上证综指收于2224.71点,上涨43.47点,涨幅1.99%,深圳成指收于8087.69点,上涨315.79点,涨幅4.06%,上证50收于1716.51点,上涨27.50,涨幅1.63%。

今日各板块资金流均保持较高水平,但全部板块资金流仅为10均的83%,低于10日均值。权重板块,即石油、银行、保险,资金流均大于10日均。

我认为目前上涨仍将继续,但是鉴于钱流可能在今后几个交易日随之下降,目前的上涨不会持续较长时间,最早在本周末和下周初出现回调。

持续数个交易日的上涨很难说明实质性问题,这仅仅是新一轮赌博和博傻的开始。

附录:

我的模拟交易状态:

2月9日模拟交易 预计中国人寿仍将在接下来的几个交易日维持上涨,海螺水泥(600585)仍将是我长期看好的一只股票。

 

 

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佳节又重阳败中介" rel="bookmark">社科院:一些中介组织正在沦为腐佳节又重阳败中介

    近年来,随着中介组织的迅速发展和大量行政寻租与商业贿赂等腐佳节又重阳败借助中介之手来实施,我国社会中介组织腐佳节又重阳败现象正日益严重。这是中国青年报记者日前从中国社会科学院独家获得的报告《社会中介组织的腐佳节又重阳败状况与治理对策研究》中的重要结论。报告撰写者、中国社会科学院经济研究所副研究员林跃勤还强调,在我国商业贿赂、政府官半夜凉初透员的寻租腐佳节又重阳败等日益严重的贿赂腐佳节又重阳败链条中,中介组织的影子越来越多,社会中介组织参与和引发寻租腐佳节又重阳败的状况有愈演愈烈的趋势。

  《社会中介组织的腐佳节又重阳败状况与治理对策研究》是社科院廉政研究协调领佳节又重阳导小组的课题之一,从2005年开始,该领佳节又重阳导小组每年都会组织一系列贴近现实的廉政建设课题。

  中介腐佳节又重阳败三大行为:行贿、洗钱、侵吞国有资产

  报告认为,在各种贪有暗香盈袖污腐佳节又重阳败案件当中,利用会计师、评估师、行业协会等中介组织出具审计报告、财务资料、评估报告等文书的合法性,掩饰其贪有暗香盈袖污腐佳节又重阳败等非法行为,以图蒙混过关、实现非法利益,是一些官半夜凉初透员寻租腐佳节又重阳败的惯常做法。报告将现阶段我国中介组织腐佳节又重阳败的行为主要归纳为三大类,行贿及帮助行贿、洗钱和参与侵吞国有资产,损害股东和消费者权益。

  一些中介机构为实现其客户委托的事项而直接或者介绍利害关系人向政府官半夜凉初透员提供金钱、有价证券等其他财产或获利机会,如送官半夜凉初透员金钱、高尔夫会员证、送房子、汽车、替官半夜凉初透员升迁买官、给其孩子出国留学提供费用。在电信设备、医疗设备等巨额采购项目中,一些大型公司经常通过公关公司、会务公司等中介组织运作,支付它们巨额“咨询费”、“业务费”,再按约定比例由这些中介公司送给客户(官半夜凉初透员)。在政府采购、招投标活动中、走私罚没物品、查封物品的拍卖等中介活动过程中,为获取政府或其他国家机关的委托,拍卖行或者招投标机构等中介组织向政府、司佳节又重阳法机关主管领佳节又重阳导或经办人员行贿。律师和律师事务所为保证案件胜诉,直接向法官行贿或者介绍、安排案件当事人向法官或者法院相关领佳节又重阳导行贿。

  报告称,一些中介组织正在沦为洗钱的技术智囊和实际操盘手。报告撰写者林跃勤博士表示,洗钱是一个复杂和隐秘的过程,贪有暗香盈袖污腐佳节又重阳败分子需要制造出一系列表面合法的合同、票证及相关产权文书来掩盖其财产来源的非法性,并需要正常账户等来完成非法财产的漂洗和转换过程,而这一过程的完成,在很大程度上需要提供智力咨询服务的中介机构介入,并为其提供帮助才能完成。按照国际货币基金组织的统计数字,中国每年洗钱数量高达2000~3000亿元人民币,其中相当一部分是贪有暗香盈袖污腐佳节又重阳败分子伙同中介机构共同“漂洗”出来的。

  报告还特别指出,近年来,财务、审计和评估类型的中介公司抱着“收人钱财,给人方便”的态度做财务审计,通过做假账、假评估、假审计等帮助腐佳节又重阳败分子贪有暗香盈袖污国有资产和股东权益的腐佳节又重阳败行为正愈演愈烈。

  一方面,在企业改制过程中,中介组织通过虚假评估等参与蚕食国有资产。在国有企业的清算、破产、出售、兼并收购以及股份制、股份合作制改造过程中,会计师、评估师、律师及投资从业人员发挥着不可替代的重要作用。在国有企业有形和无形资产、土地、设备等价值评估过程中,中介机构在企业领佳节又重阳导暗示或要求下,往往首先将国有资产由高评低,使国有资产转为贪有暗香盈袖污腐佳节又重阳败分子的私有财产,再通过资产评估将已经被严重低估和转化为私有财产的资产做出高估,以骗取银行巨额贷款,空手套白狼。近年来,各地被发现的企业所有制改革过程中大量国有资产流失或被侵吞案件的背后,几乎都有中介组织的黑手。

  另一方面,中介组织为不合格企业“包装”上市,侵吞股东权益。自上世纪90年代初以来,不合条件的众多企业被“包装”上市,以及上市公司虚假信息披露,坑害股东和国家,其背后无不是企业领佳节又重阳导层、中介机构和证券监管机构联手作案的“杰作”。银广夏虚构利润行骗、郑百文年报造假、蓝田股份和科龙股份造假等社会影响巨大的上市公司欺诈案件背后,均有负有审计责任的注册会计师帮助作假。

  此外,中介组织在建设工程招标和政府采购中也常常成为违规谋取暴利的重要帮手。招标、采购代理机构等中介组织通过勾结承包商、供应商与业主单位领佳节又重阳导,招标采购代理机构、管理监督机构、采购单位有关人员恶意串通,搞假招标,甚至操纵整个招投标过程,侵占国家和单位资金。部分监理、招标代理、造价咨询等中介机构唯利是图,在招投标中搞假投标、串标、围标。如在一些工程、采购项目招投标过程中,表面上招标方均有一套复杂的决策监督程序,并由决策委员会集体决定,评标专家一般只会在公布结果前24小时从人才库中抽出。虽然名单确定后,这些评委会被封闭起来。但实际上,名单出来后,招标代理机构等利益方马上就能获得内部人通报,并分头进行最后24小时紧急公关和“指导”夺标。这在业内被称为“24小时工程”。

 

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新工具让扭曲历史更困难

 来自中国现代史部门

 

奥威尔在《1984》中有一句警示名言:谁控制过去谁就控制未来;谁控制现在谁就控制过去。在没有视频和音频档案的时代,历史书籍中充斥了被修改、删除、掩盖的内容,或干脆拒绝写入;在数字时代,人类首次拥有第一手的档案和记录去确凿无误的证明事实。但是数字文件也能以人眼和人耳无法察觉的方式被修改。《纽约时报》报道,一项新数字验证工具将使未来的扭曲历史变得更为困难。
华盛顿大学的研究人员将在周二(北京时间周三)发布一套公共系统的初版,对卢旺达大屠有暗香盈袖杀中原告和其他国际犯罪法庭成员视频采访档案提供数字证明。该系统的设计目的是用于未来保存数字文档,证明战犯、暴行和种族灭绝的第一手资料是真实可信的。其核心组件是哈希算法,目前使用的是SHA-2,但研究人员表示可以很容易的用更先进的算法取代。系统使用live CD分发。华盛顿大学信息学院的计算机科学教授Batya Friedman表示,一段时间之后,有些人就会说用砍东篱把酒黄昏后刀(据说是Made in china)屠有暗香盈袖杀80万人是不可能的。

 

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余华:中国的虚火

来自牛年第一贴部门 

1月25日一期的《纽约时报杂志》报道了中国作家余华,主要叙述了余华的生平和最近出版的受争议小说《兄弟》,以及他最杰出的作品《活着》。文章一开始,余华讲述了对某位大人物去世不敬的记忆:“哀乐开始演奏,然后是名字前长长的头衔:敬爱的领袖,伟大的舵手.....每个人都热爱他,所以当他的名字最终宣布时,所有人都放声大哭...一个人哭是一种悲伤的情景,但数千人一起哭形成的回声却产生了滑稽的效果。”余华的哭变成了笑,但又不能笑出声,为了控制笑他全身都晃动起来。事后班长崇拜的对他说,“你哭得如此真诚。”
余华指出“人民”是中国最常用的术语,但只有当事情发生之后,你才会认识到它的真实意义。小说《兄弟》招致了广泛的批评:书名为《给余华拔牙》的批评文章选集指控《兄弟》低俗、向西方展现中国的负面画像...一位批评者说,“好人没好报”。对此余华表示,这本书受攻击是因为它暴露了中国的阴暗面,批评者大多很年轻。年轻作家生活在舒适的环境下,不相信中国的阴暗面,他们不知道这个国家仍然有数亿人生活贫困。余华称在电影《活着》被禁之后,他就不再关心中国审查员的想法。
文章最后他谈到了愤青和民族主义:外国媒体对中国略微批评,网络上就会群而攻之——“我告诉这些愤怒的青年,《纽约时报》对中国的批评远不及对美国自己的批评。基本上他们是愚昧的...这些年轻的民族主义者不知矛盾心理,不知生活的不明确。当生活变困难了,他们的态度将会改变,变得更成熟。”资本主义经济危机已在中国显现,艰苦时代即将到来。

祝各位牛年快乐,尽管第一贴有几分让人虚火上升。

 

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The Curious Case of Benjamin Button 回味无穷的台词

Benjamin Button: My name is Benjamin Button, and I was born under unusual circumstances. While everyone else was agin', I was gettin' younger... all alone.
[from trailer]
Daisy: You're so young.
Benjamin Button: Only on the outside.
[from trailer]
Daisy - Age 7: Are you sick?
Benjamin Button: They said I was gonna die soon but, maybe not.
Daisy - Age 7: You're odd.
Benjamin Button: I was thinking how nothing lasts, and what a shame that is.
Daisy: Some things last.
Benjamin Button: Along the way you bump into people who make a dent on your life. Some people get struck by lightning. Some are born to sit by a river. Some have an ear for music. Some are artists. Some swim the English Channel. Some know buttons. Some know Shakespeare. Some are mothers. And some people can dance.
Benjamin Button: Your life is defined by its opportunities... even the ones you miss.
Daisy: Would you still love me if I were old and saggy?
Benjamin Button: Would you still love ME if I were young and had acne? Or if I end up wetting the bed?
Thomas Button: [runs upstairs to see Caroline and his newborn but sees a room full of people and Caroline bleeding. Soon, the pastor enters the room] What are you doing here?
Dr. Rose: Thomas. It's Caroline. She's going to die.
Thomas Button: No. No, I want all of you out! Get away from her!
[runs to Caroline and takes her hand]
Thomas Button: I'm here. I came as soon as I could. The streets were wild. The war is over, Cary.
Caroline Button: [whispers] Promise me he'll have a place.
Thomas Button: [confused] I... I promise.
[Caroline draws her last breath and dies]
Daisy: Will you sleep with me?
Benjamin Button: Absolutely.
Benjamin Button: It's a funny thing about comin' home. Looks the same, smells the same, feels the same. You'll realize what's changed is you.
Benjamin Button: I'm always lookin' out my own eyes.
Benjamin Button: I wanna remember us just as we are now.
Daisy: Goodnight Benjamin.
Benjamin Button: Goodnight Daisy.
Benjamin Button: What if I told you that instead of gettin' older, I was gettin' younger than everybody else?
Mr. Daws: Did I ever tell you I was struck by lightning seven times? Once when I was in the field, just tending to my cows:
[brief footage of a man getting struck by lightning]
Mr. Daws: Did I ever tell you I been struck by lightning seven times? Once when I was just sittin' in my truck just minding my own business:
[brief footage of a man getting struck by lightning]
Benjamin Button: Sometimes we're on a collision course, and we just don't know it. Whether it's by accident or by design, there's not a thing we can do about it. A woman in Paris was on her way to go shopping, but she had forgotten her coat - went back to get it. When she had gotten her coat, the phone had rung, so she'd stopped to answer it; talked for a couple of minutes. While the woman was on the phone, Daisy was rehearsing for a performance at the Paris Opera House. And while she was rehearsing, the woman, off the phone now, had gone outside to get a taxi. Now a taxi driver had dropped off a fare earlier and had stopped to get a cup of coffee. And all the while, Daisy was rehearsing. And this cab driver, who dropped off the earlier fare; who'd stopped to get the cup of coffee, had picked up the lady who was going to shopping, and had missed getting an earlier cab. The taxi had to stop for a man crossing the street, who had left for work five minutes later than he normally did, because he forgot to set off his alarm. While that man, late for work, was crossing the street, Daisy had finished rehearsing, and was taking a shower. And while Daisy was showering, the taxi was waiting outside a boutique for the woman to pick up a package, which hadn't been wrapped yet, because the girl who was supposed to wrap it had broken up with her boyfriend the night before, and forgot.
Benjamin Button: When the package was wrapped, the woman, who was back in the cab, was blocked by a delivery truck, all the while Daisy was getting dressed. The delivery truck pulled away and the taxi was able to move, while Daisy, the last to be dressed, waited for one of her friends, who had broken a shoelace. While the taxi was stopped, waiting for a traffic light, Daisy and her friend came out the back of the theater. And if only one thing had happened differently: if that shoelace hadn't broken; or that delivery truck had moved moments earlier; or that package had been wrapped and ready, because the girl hadn't broken up with her boyfriend; or that man had set his alarm and got up five minutes earlier; or that taxi driver hadn't stopped for a cup of coffee; or that woman had remembered her coat, and got into an earlier cab, Daisy and her friend would've crossed the street, and the taxi would've driven by. But life being what it is - a series of intersecting lives and incidents, out of anyone's control - that taxi did not go by, and that driver was momentarily distracted, and that taxi hit Daisy, and her leg was crushed.
Mr. Daws: Did you know that I was struck by lightning seven times?
Benjamin Button: [Voice over; letter to his daughter] For what it's worth: it's never too late or, in my case, too early to be whoever you want to be. There's no time limit, stop whenever you want. You can change or stay the same, there are no rules to this thing. We can make the best or the worst of it. I hope you make the best of it. And I hope you see things that startle you. I hope you feel things you never felt before. I hope you meet people with a different point of view. I hope you live a life you're proud of. If you find that you're not, I hope you have the strength to start all over again.
Mrs. Maple: Benjamin, we're meant to lose the people we love. How else would we know how important they are to us?
Benjamin Button: It's funny how sometimes the people we remember the least make the greatest impression on us.
Captain Mike: You can be as mad as a mad dog at the way things went. You could wear, curse the fates, but when it comes to the end, you have to let go.
Queenie: You never know what's comin' for ya.
Benjamin Button: Our lives are defined by opportunities, even the ones we miss.
[from Benjamin's letter to Caroline]
Benjamin Button: For what it's worth, it's never too late, or in my case too early - to be whoever you want to be. There's no time limit; stop whenever you want. You can change, or stay the same - there are no rules to this thing. We can make the best or the worst of it. I hope you make the best of it. I hope you see things that startle you. I hope you feel things you never felt before. I hope you meet people with a different point of view. I hope you live a life you're proud of. If you find that you're not, I hope you have the strength to start all over again.
Benjamin Button: It's a funny thing about coming home. Looks the same. Smells the same. Feels the same. You'll realize what's changed... is you.
Daisy: You are so much younger.
Benjamin Button: Only on the outside.
Queenie: Poor child, he got the worst of it. Come out white.
Mr. Daws: Did I ever tell you I been struck by lightning seven times? Once when I was repairing a leak on the roof.
[brief footage of a man getting struck by lightning]
Mr. Daws: Once I was just crossing the road to get the mail.
[brief footage of a man getting struck by lightning]
Mr. Daws: Once, I was walking my dog down the road.
[brief footage of a man getting struck by lightning]
Mr. Daws: Blinded in one eye; can't hardly hear. I get twitches and shakes out of nowhere; always losing my line of thought. But you know what? God keeps reminding me I'm lucky to be alive.
[sniffles]
Mr. Daws: Storm's comin'.
Benjamin Button: Momma? Momma? Some days, I feel different than the day before.
Queenie: Everyone feels different about themselves one way or another, but we all goin' the same way.
Benjamin Button: Some nights, I'd have to sleep alone. I didn't mind, I would listen to the house breathin'. All those people sleepin'. I felt... safe.
Daisy: And in the spring, 2003, he looked at me. And I knew, that he knew, who I was. And then he closed his eyes, as if to go to sleep.
[last lines]
Benjamin Button: Some people, were born to sit by a river. Some get struck by lightning. Some have an ear for music. Some are artists. Some swim. Some know buttons. Some know Shakespeare. Some are mothers. And some people, dance.
Benjamin Button: You never know what's coming for you.
Daisy: I promise you, I'll never lose myself to self-pity again.
Benjamin Button: [while the day begins] And I think, right there and then, she realized none of us is perfect forever.
Daisy: Have you slept with a woman before?
Benjamin Button: Never on a Sunday.

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“大萧条”时期的创新启示录

来自经济不景气要低调部门

 

 

最近,全球金融市场一片混乱,余波已经殃及实体经济,这使人们对"大萧条"时期产生了浓厚的兴趣。这其中包含了很多吸引人的课题,两个时代都面临银行破产、不动产抵押品赎回权大量丧失,以及全球的不确定性等相似的问题,但同时也有很多差异。

在今天这样一个充满不确定性和变化的环境中,20世纪30年代的商业实践对于企业高管确定工作的优先顺序是否有借鉴意义呢?从通过投资来促进创新的角度来看,答案也许是肯定的。

"大萧条"时期的经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特 (Joseph Schumpeter) 强调了经济衰退的正面影响:业绩不佳的企业会被淘汰;资金从衰败的行业撤出,转而投向新兴行业;高素质的熟练工人也会向更有实力的雇主流动。历史经验证明,对于那些有资金、有想法的企业,经济衰退可以为它们提供巨大的战略机会。

 

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09年第81届奥斯卡提名名单出炉

来自奥斯卡与我们无关部门

 

 2009年第81届奥斯卡奖提名名单已经揭晓,《本杰明·巴顿奇事》(The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)获得了包括最佳影片在内的共13项提名,毫无疑问应该是今年的最大赢家。

  

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概率论与统计笔记(一)

基本的概率论与统计概念

1.求和符合及性质

<tex>\sum_{i=1}^{i=n}X_i=X_1+X_2+\ldots+X_n</tex>

 <tex>\sum</tex> 的一些重要性质如下:

若 k为常数,有下面的算法:

<tex>\sum_{i=1}{n}k=nk</tex>

也就是说,常数的n次求和等于该常数的n倍。

若k为常数

$latex \sum kX_i=k \sum X_i$ 

即可把常数放在求和符号前面。

$latex \sum(X_i+Y_i)=\sum X_i+\sum Y_i$ 

$latex \sum(a+bX_i)=na+b\sum X_i$ 

其中a,b为常数,根据上述性质可以得到。 

 

 

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黑客破解雅虎帐号认证系统

据xdite.net博客报道,有黑客宣称他破解了Yahoo的架构,并在milw0rm上公开了一篇论文详述雅虎的认证架构与如何实作破解。这位黑客称可以藉由此方法登入任何他想要登的帐号,拿走他想要知道的资料。他能登入的雅虎产品和服务有Mail、Profiles、Web Messenger、WAP Messenger、360 Blog、Calender、Notes等。他还公布了一段视频(Youtube)证明所言不虚

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Hello,World!

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